A lot has been published and said about using jockey and trainer methods to discover excellent horse racing wagers. Almost everyone who tries to back horses for money knows that there are some groups of jockey and trainer combinations that win a lot of races.
But just how essential is that information in reality when you are rating races? For example, let’s say you see an excellent jockey trainer combination with a 73% win and place strike rate history at York Racecourse. How big of a deal is that?
The concern that you really have to ask yourself is this, how much of an effect is this information that is openly known to other punters having upon the odds. Many horse racing papers and websites now display this research so it is well known and many punters will jump on the band wagon, or so it seems.
One example was a in a five runner horse race and I spotted a jockey/ trainer combination who were running a gelding to the starting gates at a price of 7-2. The early morning odds on this horse were 3-1. So even though the trainer jockey combination seemed fairly hot and the official handicapper believed highly of the horse, it was going off a bit over the early morning odds. This isn’t exactly rocket science, but it does cause us to take another look and to consider if it is a worthy bet.
The race favourite was a 6 year old gelding and was being sent to post by another excellent jockey/ trainer combination. They have a win and place strike rate of 58% in the money. Evaluating the two statistics of 58% to 75% we discover that the first combination is in the money 25% more often. So just looking at that one bit of information determines it is apparent that by gambling the 75% combination provides you with a 25% advantage. But now, here is the actual key to discovering value, the horse had an early morning price of 9-5, but actually went to off at even money.
I recognize this is a very simple example and I am describing an easy method to discover value, but it makes you think, doesn’t it? This combination is in the cash 25% more often. The horse is going off above the early morning price in a small field race. If you didn’t have lots of time to study the race cards in depth and could only use the morning odds and jockey/trainer statistics, which horse would you bet on?
Whenever you are having problems choosing winning value selections, keep in mind this easy example. Go back to the basics and look at the very fundamentals and see if there isn’t some apparent bit of data that can be combined in addition to one other bit of information to lead you toward an excellent value bet.